An Edwards Prayer

Having seen that Ms. Edwards now has a very bad cancer on her bone. I would like to set aside the ideological differences and let them know my family is sending a prayer to his family.

WE WILL ALL DIE!

Actually I'm writing about how the gloom and doom of an inconvenient fiction has shocked liberals into a rabid frenzy that is to a point of being incoherent. It's a fact that so far all of us are mortal and will die. Climate change is very unlikely to be the cause of it.

Scientists who study thermodynamics tell us there is no such thing as a global temperature. No kiddin'? That star trek term is real science? You mean 100 billion gallons of sea water and tens of millions of cubic yards of air have a heat enthalpy factor that prevents instantaneous changing of the temperature without massive exchanges of energy? Even a one degree change requires a massive amount of energy for that volume of anything.

NOW do you understand my doubts? I'm not saying roll yourself in pesticides and go swimming in the lake. IE: don't be stupid about chemicals, burning and garbage. I am saying that making us think we are killing our children with this is so outlandish as to be, well, stupid.

Clinton Conspiracy

When is a conspiracy not a conspiracy but actually good truthful reporting? If you are Hillary Clinton then you call the activities of those reporting the questionable activities spiced with marital problems in her relationship with Bill a conspiracy.

I'd also bet that Hillary says that Nixon and his staff were the conspiracy while Woodward and Bernstein were the good guys because of their reporting?

Am I reading that right? Does that mean that when someone reports the less-than-desirable and possibly felonious facts or truths about a republican that is good reporting ON A CONSPIRACY. IF that report of equally less-than-desirable and possibly felonious facts is done against a democrat then the person reporting is THE CONSPIRACY.

I'll say this for Hillary, she's a very twisted form of consistent. She says firing 93 federal attorneys is "no big deal" when she and Bill did it in 1993. Now that Bush has fired 8 of them it is a scandal?

Time, The Right, And the 4 letter response

Time magazine is not always wrong. Sometimes they hit the nail on the head. To mix my metaphors they have gone further in that I think they might have pinged a home run ball off of the foul post by accident:

The conservative leadership is lacking and we need another Ronald Regan to reign it in.

Do we get conservative leadership out of McCain? On a good day yes. Too bad he doesn't have too many of those. Juliani at best is 50-50 on being a conservative or a true liberal depending on the topic. Don't get me wrong, I am in agreement with both on their strong support for finishing Iraq correctly instead of leaving it half-done.

My response to Time's article is a 4 letter word.
It begins with F.


FRED

As in Fred Thompson. I think he has what it takes to be our conservative voice and to force the party back to what wins elections. What wins are strong conservative ideals. He's more than just the tough DA on law and order, he is an old-school smart conservative. I know that he scares the democrats.

DRAFT FRED IN 08!

Greeting Card: Sorry To Inconvenience You

http://www.4exhale.org

I read this article and thought I would just absolutely vomit. Their thinking is very much in line with what I am writing below, even if their tone and attitude is more socially acceptable:

Dear Mom,
I am so sorry I inconvenienced you. It didn't hurt much or for very long. That family that would have loved me will have a shot at another kid. Heaven is nice and Jesus is holding me.
Thank You for Choosing to Abort Me.
Your child.

Subprime Bloodletting Update

You really should not listen to what you hear on the news. I have been tracking Elaine Ser-whatever-gamas(?) on CBS and have to say her understanding of the information and the presentation of the data she gathers is not at all clear or accurate.

Paraphrase: "These companies closing will hurt subprime borrowers and make them more likely to foreclose."

That implies that the closing of a subprime company does something bad to the existing mortgage. NO, that is not the case. If the borrower fails to pay his loan that will cause foreclosure. A company closing does not cause my loan to foreclose. It is a secured contract that someone else will buy and service.

If Mr. Borrower has a loan that he can't afford maybe he shouldn't have gotten it in the first place. IF the loan is adjustable that's a slightly different tale: it might adjust a MAXIMUM of 2% TWICE A YEAR. Depending on your home size, that might be significant, but as a percentage of income it is relatively flat as the mortgage to income should be proportional.

Also to keep things in proportion, lets review the numbers. IF we listen to the news we think that it has "NEVER been like this and it is like 300% worse than ever before...?"

rates of default October to December:
2003: 4.97%
2006: 4.95%

HEY! WAIT! THAT MEANS THAT IT ISN'T AS BAD NOW AS IT WAS IN 2003?????

I'm only pointing out the obvious fact in the historical perspective. You have heard "default rates jump 20%" from CBS commentators but the difference of .3% of the total (difference between 4.6 and 4.9%). Is POINT 3 PERCENT a huge jump that should make the market crash or is it just a cyclical correction?

Just so you know, point 3% is still a humongous pile of cash if it were in your checking account. For an investment firm point 3 is what they can spend that on long distance calls and Starbucks in three months.

I would also submit to you that all of these companies who are going under have an acceptable margin of default in ranges from 3 to 5% of portfolio. Any overages have to be bought back. Recently we have seen a trend where investors are forcing more buybacks than usual which put many of these companies in financial crisis.

Other very interesting sources
statistical models for mortgages and defaults (circa 2003-4)
very boring paper with some fascinating distributions
http://www.actuaries.org/AFIR/Colloquia/Boston/VanAkkeren_Hansen.pdf
more concise with nice projection models
http://www.phil.frb.org/files/br/br_q3-2006-3_residential_mortgage.pdf

Bloodletting has been applied and fear has gripped the joe blow investor and some under-informed analysts and newsies. I see rationality on the horizon but will it be soon enough to save these people's jobs?

Firing US Attorneys

The White House orders the termination of US Attorneys who are investigating politicos. This is criminal! This is wrong!

This was done by the Clintons in 1993 as a "routine" action according to Hillary. They fired 93 including the one investigating the Clintons personally! It's really a shame that I haven't heard a peep about that perspective on NPR, NBC, CBS or ABC?

Well Chuck Schumer, what do you think about that?

NEW CENTURY PULSE!

FACT: As of today, they are not accepting new loans. Stock at $3 and a EITHER a worthless piece of paper or a bargain.

RUMOR: JP Morgan bought them today? If true then a big TOLD YA SO from me.

SI Global Warming

Thank the good lord that a real authority has finally published the difinitive piece on global warming. I was nursing a budweiser flipping between sports channels on the satelite when I noticed that cover and had to read more.



Yeah, right.

While I do feel for the ski people and the variances in weather that have caused them to not be able to enjoy their pastime I still lack something concrete. Concrete as in PROOF. PROVE to me that climate is supposed to be static! PROVE to me that we could change weather if we wanted to?

Did man change the Sahara into desert from lush tropics or did climate change?
Did man change the antarctic into a frozen wasteland was it a natural process (tectonic shift)?


HERE is an apt way to respond:
Lay a pencil on the goal line of a football field. That field represents our atmosphere. That pencil represents the billions of tons of CO2 we have put into the air. NOW prove to me how that pencil makes a difference in temperature?

It makes us feel good to be green and I'm not saying that's bad. I am saying that the association of the doom-and-gloom end-of-the-world garbage has got to stop.

Media Matters, Shower Time

Having spent half an hour clicking through this site my head would benefit from a nice hot soapy shower. Let's look at Dick Morris on Hannity's show for a sample-it's linked in my title.

Apparently Hillary does not believe in a Nanny state is what Media Matters is trying to push. If cradle to grave isn't a nanny state on the issue of health care then I need a new definition from someone. However if she did believe in the Nanny state according the commentors that would make her a Christian because of a dozen different quotes supplied by Southparkliberal who was on his way to becoming a Lutheran minister at one point in his life. Here they are:

Mat. 25:34 "Then I, the King, shall say to those at my right, 'Come, blessed of my Father, into the Kingdom prepared for you from the founding of the world. Mat. 25:35 For I was hungry and you fed me; I was thirsty and you gave me water; I was a stranger and you invited me into your homes; Mat. 25:36 naked and you clothed me; sick and in prison, and you visited me.' Mat. 25:37 "Then these righteous ones will reply, 'Sir, when did we ever see you hungry and feed you? Or thirsty and give you anything to drink? Mat. 25:38 Or a stranger, and help you? Or naked, and clothe you? Mat. 25:39 When did we ever see you sick or in prison, and visit you?' Mat. 25:40 "And I, the King, will tell them, 'When you did it to these my brothers you were doing it to me!' Mat. 25:41 Then I will turn to those on my left and say, 'Away with you, you cursed ones, into the eternal fire prepared for the devil and his demons. Mat. 25:42 For I was hungry and you wouldn't feed me; thirsty, and you wouldn't give me anything to drink; Mat 25:43 a stranger, and you refused me hospitality; naked, and you wouldn't clothe me; sick, and in prison, and you didn't visit me.' Mat. 25:44 "Then they will reply, 'Lord, when did we ever see you hungry or thirsty or a stranger or naked or sick or in prison, and not help you?' Mat 25:45 "And I will answer, 'When you refused to help the least of these my brothers, you were refusing help to me.' Mat. 25:46 "And they shall go away into eternal punishment; but the righteous into everlasting life."

Wow. A liberal after reading the Bible, okkkkkkkayyyyyy.... All republicans are going to hell? Let's do an exercise whereby we actually analyze what was said rather than pulling out what we want to hear. Read all those lines carefully and answer this question:

Where does it say: "and ye shall fork over taxes so the govmint' can impose this service" as I am reading that "YOU" are the one responsible personally for being giving?

I don't see welfare checks. I don't see homeless shelters. I don't see federal programs. I see personal, direct action.
As in: YOU open your home.
YOU gave me water.
YOU gave me clothing.
I don't see "YOU gave money so someone else could give me these services and you could keep your hands clean."

Come on libs! Where did Jesus say it was up to the federal govmnt for that? I wonder if Edwards house has ever hosted a homeless guy? Are any of you volunteering in children's programs? Are any of you doing more than spouting off?

Of Living and Death

Today when I opened my Yahoo mailbox the obligatory news headlines were summarized under my mail. Most times I completely ignore these, but the tag line about Ernest Gallo the wine maker passing at age 97 caught my eye.

You see, my dad was into running/jogging in the 70's and 80's and how healthy that is. He read Jim Fixx's book about running and how wonderful it can be for your body. Jim Fixx died at age 52 of a heart attack.

My dad was and still is heavily into nutritional supplements. Did you take your vitamins? I fondly point out that the Herbalife founder Mark Reynolds Hughes died at age 44.

To my dad I pass this note: yes I have curtailed French fries to near zero. I am eating much better than I used to. However I don't fret over this stuff because I don't think I will live one day longer than I am supposed to. I do think that how you live your life is more important than what you eat or how you exercise. I think that having emotional health, good friends and a loving family trumps pills and push ups. Everything else is just a fad.

Then after I romanticized about this, I read the rest of the article about what a gangster this guy was in the wine business? Again I am reminded of how much I have to learn!

Freemont Quits Subprime

HA! NOBODY wants to see bad things happen but it is fun when I get a prediction right! Freemont is quitting subprime. I've been saying they were next ever since I predicted MLN to go around Christmas (they closed at New Year, a week later).

Let's see...

Option One will survive with almost no subprime product. They will look suspiciously like Countrywide's lending matrix before long. Speaking of Countrywide, I wonder what they will do with Full Spectrum and their BC reps now that they have all A and Alt-A products which they already have retail and wholesale ops for? I'll bet they close them up.

New Century is tanking rapidly...73% off stock price at opening as I type??? but ain't gone yet. I look for them to go private if the stock hits a low-enough point. Their investors will buy in and save it.

Argent is the big question mark for me. How are they staying up? They've had bad paper for a very, very long time...?

There are a number of other companies that will cease operations. The one that is going to be the shocker to all in my opinion is going to be Decision One. Their pockets are deep, but HSBC is fed up with that market and owns them. I do look for regional banks to go into the BC market with small cap lending on borrowers with high residual income and/or deep reserves in 401k programs even if the scores stink.

The bottom is nearing rapidly. Let's see where the ride ends and the uptick starts!

Pit Bull No More

I am a dog lover. I can't help it; they love you no matter what. I am very fond of Shetland Sheepdogs but almost any dog and I get a long really well. We are rescue friends and have housed over a dozen dogs and found homes for almost all of them. We love almost any dog.

Almost any.

My wife came home one night with a "lab mix" dog she found in the cold rain at Kroger in the parking lot. I took one look at the head and pronounced to my wife that she was nuts and had brought a Pitt Bull! That was in the late winter of 2004.

The Pitt Bull rescue was extremely helpful to us and gave us cash to have her fixed and posted her information on their adoption site. However they are still full from Katrina rescues and had no place to offer. We did try to place her with a lady, who-it turns out- sells Pitts to anyone with $100 and asks no questions. Fortunately we were able to find out she was bad news and got the Pitt back from her and kept her until this weekend.

This dog was a big slug. Her favorite pastime was laying in your lap or in an impossibly small ball next to you. So still and happy. So wonderfully nice and gentle for such a strong dog. She was so sweet except for two instances with one (of our three) cats whom she could not get along with. Twice she picked him up by his face and just held him in her jaws. Both times we were able to free the cat relatively unscathed. We thought it was the exception to the rule but it should have been the warning.

Yesterday I was walking our 3 dogs in the yard with the two Shelties running free and the Pitt on a leash when a strange car turned around in the cul-de-sac. When I got my youngest and most spastic Sheltie back from barking the car and calmed her, the Pitt (who I had on a retractable leash) jumped the just scolded-but then loved on and complimented Sheltie. It was, horribly scary and felt like an eternity, in hindsight it was like under 3 minutes.

Today I have a bandage over a gash in my thumb, multiple bruises and a few punctures and a teatnus shot. The Pitt is put down. The Sheltie is missing some fur but othewise unharmed because her thick fur protected her from the worst of it. Likely also because my thumb was in the Pitt's jaw when she chewed and shook at the neck. I'm quite sure the Pitt could have been more forceful; and that I was stupid in how I grabbed her mouth.

I should have remained calm and offered a treat. My wife should have grabbed the hose and sprayed. My wife did rub her chest and talk gently to the Pitt and that's when she released. Hindsight lessons. Scars are stupid tax.

Before today I would have said it's the owners. Now I know there really is a switch inside Pitt Bulls that can be triggered without warning. I have a 5 year old and did not hesitate to put that dog to sleep. Yet as I write this I have regrets and sorrow. Then common sense tells me that could have been my child and I fight back the lingering doubts about our choice.

GOOGLE FRUSTRATION

The boss decided that we all needed to use google installer and do our virus software through them. No big deal.

Now I come in this morning to find my Adobe Acrobat uninstalled?? What-in-the-heck?????? I use this program EVERY DAY, MULTIPLE TIMES PER DAY AND THEY UNISTALLED IT WITHOUT MY PERMISSION?!!!

What I'd really like to know is why the heck they did that. Not cool.

GLOBAL WARMING (mars)

So if I read this correctly, National Geographic says we have global warming on Mars.

I wonder what Al and the other eco purists say about this?